PERFORMANCE TRANSPARENCY
Track Record
Every price target. Every pick. Full transparency — no cherry-picking.
5
Picks
2/5
Price Targets Hit
+62.0%
Portfolio Return
How is Portfolio Return calculated?▼
A hypothetical equal-weight portfolio: $1,000 is invested at each pick's publish price on the day the thesis was published.
When a closed pick reaches its target, the proceeds are split equally and reinvested into active picks below their targets at the price on the target-hit date — not at the original publish price.
Picks held under 30 days (with no ±15% move) are excluded from the total until they mature, so new positions don't skew the average.
Returns are computed lot-by-lot: the original $1,000 grows from the publish price; each reinvested slice grows from the event-date price it was bought at. No leverage, no margin, no real money — this is a transparent benchmark of the public thesis calls.
Portfolio vs. S&P 500
$5,000 invested ($1K per pick · proceeds reinvested at event-date prices)
$8,101
+62.0%
My Picks
$5,861
+17.2%
S&P 500
Reinvestment Flow
FSLR closed Nov 3, 2025 — $126 → $262 (108%)
$1,000 grew to $2,079, split into 2 active picks = +$1,040 each
Active Picks — Return Since Publish
All Research Picks
First Solar: Buy-Rated with $190 Price Target Despite Emerging Policy Risks
Despite a 41% post-election selloff driven by IRA uncertainty, First Solar's fundamentals remain compelling. My multi-model valuation (DCF, EV/EBITDA, PE, P/CF) all converge below fair value, supporting a $190 price target.
Price Target
+108%
$126 → $262achieved
Price target of $262 reached October 2025. Coverage closed following repeated earnings misses and a sharp downward revision to FY2026 guidance, with management guiding revenue of $4.8–5.2B, a 30% cut from prior estimates.
NEXTracker: Tracking the Future of Solar with a $70 Price Target
NEXTracker holds 23% global market share in solar tracking technology, boasts a CAGR of 30%, and carries a $4.5B backlog. My DCF analysis points to $67/share. I'm placing a $70 price target with 40% upside.
Price Target
+40%
$50 → $70achieved
Since Publish
+143.8%
$50 → $121.88
Position (avg cost)
+80.7%
$67.44 → $121.88
Hypothetical position: $2,040 invested · avg cost $67.44/share
Price target of $70 reached August 2025. Coverage remains active as I continue to monitor earnings growth and management execution on the $4.5B backlog.
Sprouts Farmers Market: Why I Bought the Dip, $153 Price Target
Despite a 25% post-earnings drop driven by cautious Q4 guidance, Sprouts Farmers Market's fundamentals remain strong. My DCF analysis implies a fair value of $153/share, a 94% premium to the October 31 price.
Price Target
+94%
$79 → $153
Since Publish
+9.3%
$79 → $86.33
Hypothetical position: $2,040 invested · avg cost $79.00/share
SiriusXM: Buy-Rated with $39 Price Target
SiriusXM generates over $1.2B in annual free cash flow behind a satellite infrastructure moat and 180M+ trial-equipped vehicles on the road. My DCF implies $39/share, a 70% premium to the current price of $23.
Price Target
+70%
$23 → $39
Since Publish
+19.7%
$23 → $27.52
Hypothetical position: $1,000 invested · avg cost $23.00/share
Celsius Holdings: Buy-Rated with $49 Price Target
Following the Alani Nu acquisition and the consolidation of Rockstar Energy under its expanded PepsiCo partnership, Celsius now operates a three-brand portfolio with roughly 20% U.S. energy drink share. At about 14.4x FY2025 EV/EBITDA versus a peer median near 19x, the stock already trades at a discount. My DCF implies a fair value near $49/share on a diluted basis, a 66% premium to the May 11 price of $29.50.
Price Target
+66%
$29.5 → $49
Since Publish
-1.1%
$29.5 → $29.18
Hypothetical position: $1,000 invested · avg cost $29.50/share